There are few more humbling endeavors in the world of American sport than that of a Baltimore Orioles fan. Not because the team sucks (over the last three full seasons they’ve averaged 111 losses) but because at one time they were the model organization in baseball.
That time when the team was known league wide for doing things the “Oriole Way” ended nearly 40 years ago.[1]Between 1969-74 the O’s won the AL East Pennant five of six years, went to the World Series in three consecutive years (’69-71), and won their last title in ’83. They would not make … Continue reading Save for a few phenomenal moments and some high-stakes heartbreaking ones the intervening years too often have largely been dreadful.
But that’s about to change. It already has. It will bear fruit, in a massive and modern way, by 2023 and then beyond.
I can see my baseball-loving friends, the corners of their mouths turned slightly upward in an endearing smirk. Each spring, in the beginning of April, they allow me my childish hope.
Really, I’ll insist, this year’s going to be different. Typically by May my hopes are crushed.[2]There was a five year stretch, fro 2012-16 when under manager Buck Showalter the team defied expectations and carried the highest winning percentage of any AL team. The 2014 team especially had a … Continue reading
I also see another smile, albeit in the future. It’s my own and it matches the one seen on the Oriole bird itself, on the team cap.
That smile is a smirk—the last laugh will be ours.
Beyond an “elite talent pipeline”
The Orioles have the top ranked farm system in baseball. They feature the top position prospect and the top pitching prospect. They are also expected[3]The team is slated to pick first in the 2022 Draft, but there is a chance that could change with the current collective bargaining agreement between the League and the Players Association. A change … Continue reading to have the number one pick in next year’s draft.
But things are about to get even better, to the point that they’ll have the model organization in baseball. And it’ll be more than the “elite talent pipeline” Mike Elias predicted when he became Executive Vice President and General Manager in Nov. 2018.
It will be an organization that scouts and drafts very well (Elias’s area of expertise with the perennially contending Houston Astros before arriving in Birdland), but also one whose top-to-bottom integration, especially in such key areas as character building, injury prevention and effective implementation of analytics to said athlete, will be exemplary.
While no one can predict how many, if any, World Series titles will come of this, one can predict with increasing confidence that the Orioles will be perennially competitive in “the toughest division in sports” and that they’ll be an organization from which others will borrow to build theirs.
To understand how we got to this point of legitimate optimism it’s helpful to get a sense of where it all started.
From the ashes
When Elias, the Houston Astros assistant GM, took over in Baltimore the organization had reached a nadir. After several years under Buck Showalter, when the team routinely defied oddsmakers, contending more often than not, even he could no longer wring out positive results.[4]Showalter’s last season was 2018. The roster had plenty of big names (Adam Jones, Zach Britton and Manny Machado among them) and still lost 115 games, 61 games out of first.
The team was getting outclassed by a league that had moved from the old school style of brilliant guys like Showalter to an ultra-modern one driven by analytics.[5]Showalter was recently hired by the New York Mets. He has proclaimed that he’s always been into analytics. This is misleading as he has never been into analytics in the modern sense. This was … Continue reading At the time of Elias’s arrival, at a time when virtually every team employed its own team of data analysts, the Orioles analytics department consisted of one person. One.
Former Orioles pitchers Kevin Gausman and Zach Britton each described the beneficial approach of their new club, and they by implication revealed the incompetence of their previous one.
“No shortcuts”
From Day 1 Elias was bold and direct. He vowed the elite talent pipeline, yes, but also said there are “no shortcuts” to doing so. One of the features of the Orioles rebuild has been the supportive patience, and even hope, of a fanbase that has over the years grown cynical, pessimistic and ornery.
In the years since then Elias and his hires have radically improved the farm system at virtually every level.
They’ve transformed their presence in Latin America, breaking ground on a new academy in the Dominican. And they just signed a record 24 players via the International Draft, which teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have perennially used to stock their systems while the O’s have historically abstained.
But the International Draft, data analytics, video analysis of biomechanics, these are now commonplace. The O’s in that way are merely catching up to the status quo.
So how will they be different?
Culture change
Sig Mejdal, assistant GM and head of baseball analytics, came to the Orioles (also from the Astros) because he enjoys taking on the challenges of systems in which he’s placed.
In an interview with MLB, he said: “I’ve realized I’m more of a start-up person than the steady state. There is an excitement with change and bringing in new processes. The more significant the change, for me anyway, the more excitement there is from it.”
In other words, Mejdal came to Baltimore not merely to replicate what he did in Houston, but to go beyond it.
A former NASA engineer, Mejdal is one of the best at the analysis part, but he’s remarkably receptive to the limits of data—especially if the bridge to the human user is neglected.
“When you have human beings, we’re asking to change or rethink things,” he said at an Oriole fan event. “And if you’re going to have your analysts or developers interacting with them, they need to be sensitive and, frankly, realize they’re in the field of change management. There are change management skills, and you don’t learn that when you get your analytics degree.”
If the team’s upper level hires are any indication the Orioles are learning that.
Matt Blood, Orioles director of player development, has a Twitter bio that states his driving mission: “Create spaces for people to be vulnerable, to be honest, and to even show ignorance—and from this space, realization and growth occur.”
He repeatedly emphasizes creating a culture of trust. The trust allows players to take on challenges, providing those players with the fortitude necessary to overcome them at each level.
“We’re really big on collaboration and we’re really big on communication,” he said during a recent On the Verge Orioles Podcast. “And you can’t have these things without trust. And then we’re also really big on challenging practice and not being afraid to fail in practice and not being afraid to be exposed. In order for a player to feel comfortable with that he’s got to trust you.”
Recent feedback from the players suggests a lot of trust in what’s happening.
Changing the system
Trust is built individually but also systemically. That means tailoring instruction to partner with the unique profile of strengths of each player, but also making sure players are taught without contradiction as they move through levels of the minors.
Chris Holt, previously the O’s minor-league pitching coordinator, will now serve as director of pitching, and as the major league pitching coach. It is unlike any other coaching role in MLB. But it’s done with an eye toward full hierarchical integration of pitching philosophy and instruction.
The same thing is happening with the hitting instruction. Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller said in an interview with MASN’s Steve Melewski “we’re really excited to have a really unified, tight-knit hitting department from the Dominican Republic all the way up to Baltimore.”
Additionally a trend within the system is using the minors as a place for progressive developmental approaches. If it’s successful there then it can be brought to the major league team.
It has the added benefit of having worked with the players steadily arriving at the top level, which means not only that they’re continuing what they started but that they’re spreading a sense of buy-in.
Right now there’s a ton of buy-in among players and also the staff and what they’re doing. It’s only a matter of time before that becomes league-wide consensus.
Still the O’s don’t expect to stand still in an aggressively changing landscape.
“What is the next big thing?” Mejdal asked. “Is it going to be computer vision, some artificial intelligence, something less sexy than that?”
This time the Orioles will be at the front of the pack, eager to find out.
Notes, etc.
| ↑1 | Between 1969-74 the O’s won the AL East Pennant five of six years, went to the World Series in three consecutive years (’69-71), and won their last title in ’83. They would not make a postseason appearance again until ’96 and ’97, and then not until 2012. |
|---|---|
| ↑2 | There was a five year stretch, fro 2012-16 when under manager Buck Showalter the team defied expectations and carried the highest winning percentage of any AL team. The 2014 team especially had a shot to win it all but got swept in the ALCS. |
| ↑3 | The team is slated to pick first in the 2022 Draft, but there is a chance that could change with the current collective bargaining agreement between the League and the Players Association. A change in the O’s top position is considered unlikely. |
| ↑4 | Showalter’s last season was 2018. The roster had plenty of big names (Adam Jones, Zach Britton and Manny Machado among them) and still lost 115 games, 61 games out of first. |
| ↑5 | Showalter was recently hired by the New York Mets. He has proclaimed that he’s always been into analytics. This is misleading as he has never been into analytics in the modern sense. This was apparent when during his tenure with the Orioles he would talk frequently of the importance of pitchers’ “fastball command” and establishing the fastball—all at a time when league wide pitchers were emphasizing a command of off-speed pitches, especially in traditional fastball counts. And while it hasn’t gotten much if any talk, a conversation about the downfall of Chris “Crush” Davis wouldn’t be complete without considering what role this lack of counter-analytics may have played while the league was using analytics to destroy him. That said, Showalter’s aptitude combined with the support and integration of analytics in New York could produce top-notch results. |